Thursday, July 19, 2007

Storms tonight 19-20 July

Tonight is the most unstable of the week, followed by cooler air from the ocean without activity for some days.
GFS and MM5 models forecast an MCS starting to develop over the Massif Central, moving into northeastern France around 00 UTC and into Germany. A second MCS may develop not far north of Pic du Midi. Possible problem are the cloud conditions over the cameras. The past two nights were plagued by low/mid level clouds north of the Pyrenees in weak northern flow at low levels and southern flow at mid levels. Today during the afternoon the clouds disappear, but may reappear during the evening as more cold air advects from the northwest in response to the development of low pressure over central France. Later in the night an upper trough creates lift over the Pyrenees with likely increase of middle level and high clouds.
The team from Toulouse will go to Mont Aigoual, which has better chances of clear skies.

Last night a storm system was observed from Pic du Midi and La Molina. Results will be checked today...


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