Thunderstorm Outlook Fri 22 - Wed 27 July

High pressure over southwestern Europe has suppressed thunderstorms over our observation area the past few days. But the situation is slowly changing to a very favourable thundery weather pattern again, starting this Sunday. Different models all agree that an upper trough approaches, and it will dominate the weather in our observation area for at least a few days. One surface low pressure area passes Sunday/Monday, with the best chances of storms probably over northern France. A second low will follow Tuesday/Wednesday, and looks very favorable for widespread storm development over France because of the deeper southerly flow component and large scale rising motions.