Thunderstorm Outlook: Friday-Monday 15-18 July

Will we have good stormy conditions at the onset of this year's EuroSprite campaign? Let's have a look at the various numerical weather forecasting models. The current scenario that most models agree with, is that an old upper trough very slowly approaches the European continent these days. By Friday, the ridge of high pressure over the UK and Benelux has eroded and a thermal trough will expand northward from Spain, with warmer and moister air flowing into France.
This could lead to the first thunderstorms over France on Friday, and since the scenario progresses slowly, a repeat on Saturday is possible. This is especially true in ECMWF and GFS, but some models such as UKMO and NMM think of more westerly upper winds that let the thundery conditions slip eastwards out of France to northern Italy and southern Germany, followed by cooler air over France.
The ECMWF/GFS solutions feature Sunday as another thunderstorm day over France. GFS keeps the thundery conditions the longest, even on Monday, but my feeling is it may be too good to be true. I will keep you updated on this later this week. At least it seems that the Danish team will have reasonable chance of having some natural flashes available to test the camera... :)