Saturday, July 16, 2005

Thunderstorm Outlook Sat-Mon 16-18 July

Tonight there will be a chance of thunderstorms from central France into the Alpine region. Near the Alps, conditions seem favourable for more widespread storms, with some chance of a mesoscale convective system (MCS), but in terms of synoptic scale forcing things look somewhat marginal.

On Sunday, a thermal low will develop over western-central France, and diverse models forecast convective (thunderstorm) precipitation in that area... so it seems likely that widespread thunderstorms, maybe a MCS, may form.

Finally, the best and most classical setup for sprite-generating MCS storm systems appears to happen Monday evening/night, as a cold front pushes the warm airmass eastward over (south)eastern France and the Alpine region.

After that, there will be a lull in storm activity for several days - perhaps a week - due to the build-up of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.


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